10 Themes for the Next Ten Years

1. The ‘Bicycle for the Mind’ gets an update: Steve Job’s famous description of a computer deserves a reassessment. They are now orders of magnitude beyond mere ‘bicycles’. Over the next ten years they might become 1000X faster still. We need to plan for that.
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2. Unbundling & Rebundling: All knowledge workers are going to see their jobs, which are bundles of tasks aimed at fulfilling a range of goals, taken apart, redesigned, repurposed and rebuilt. The landscape of work will be transformed. We either do this ourselves, or have it done to us.
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3. Fast, agile, ultra-productive superteams: We have to plan for massively higher productivity. In an AI-mediated world, where ‘human + machine’ work together, it is going to be possible for small teams to be extraordinarily productive. Just competing against ‘average’ is going to become a thing of the past. Everywhere we’ll be up against much stiffer competition. The divide between the best and the rest will widen, year by year.
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4. Removing Friction & Enabling Discovery: This is what all software should be about. Making life easier for people and enabling them to access the information they need, when and wherever they are. Often easier said than done but a key ‘North Star’ to aim for.
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5. Redefining ‘what is the best affordable option?: So often one hears that X is not as good as Y, without the caveat that Y is not affordable in the circumstances. However, the ‘best affordable option’ is becoming better year by year. We’ll be upping the bar relentlessly over the next 10 years.
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6. Outcomes as a Service: Just selling software ‘as a service’ isn’t going to be good enough soon. No-one actually wants the software, they want the outcome. And that likely involves hardware, and services as well as bits and bytes. All these things need to work together, and be curated by humans.
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7. #HumanIsTheNewLuxury: The great paradox of the AI Age is that the most ‘premium product’ will involve a human. We’re in thrall to new ‘toys’ but will tire of them - and then we’ll crave humanity.
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8. Form factor / Purpose / Location: The world around us is changing. The form factor of spaces and places, the ‘why’ of their existence, and even where they take place. A second order consequence of the tsunami of new computational capabilities will be our cities needing a makeover.
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9. #SpaceasaService ‘loves’ Generative Al: There is a progressive company nexus that is seeing the same companies leaning in to advanced technologies are the same companies leaning in to new ways of working, the world of #SpaceasaService. ‘The future is here, just not evenly distributed.’
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10. We need a bigger pie: All of the above is going to mean that a far smaller workforce is going to be required to produce everything that we produce today. Unless we ‘build a bigger pie’ they’ll be a lot of people with no pie!

These themes are not just ideas to observe—they are compasses to guide us as we navigate the next decade. Together, they provide a framework to think critically, act decisively, and innovate boldly in the face of change.

Over the coming weeks, I’ll explore each theme in depth, unpacking the opportunities and challenges they present. My hope is that this newsletter becomes a trusted resource for you—a place where we can reflect on these enduring ideas and find practical ways to apply them.

The next ten years are rich with possibility. Let’s build a bigger pie, together.