Scoring My 2024 HR Predictions: Hits, Misses, and What’s Next
Lessons learned from 2024: surprises, trends, and what’s shaping HR’s future!
In December 2023, I made ten People Predictions for 2024. Let’s see how I did and remember that predictions aren’t meant to be correct; instead, they should create a discussion. Here’s what I got wrong, right, or too early.
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1. More with Less - Year of Efficiency Continues
This one I got right. More and more companies continued to cut staff and find areas of efficiency with AI. We saw many companies continue to make efforts to do more with less, and the most prominent that continues to push on this with a high degree of force is Klarna, who eliminated thousands of roles with AI automation.
2. Autonomous Agents Everywhere All at Once
I saw the future for this one, but it was a little too early. I saw what is now called Agentic AI as having the most significant impact on business, genuinely automating tasks, but I was WAY too early. We are currently seeing a surge of focus around AI Agents and some beta versions of the technology with Agent.ai. We are in a very early stage here, and I predict that in 2025, this will become much larger and more ubiquitous than GenerativeAI.
3. More AI. Less AI
Well, this landed in the middle of wrong or right. We saw one of the most significant funding years in AI for private companies, VC, and PE in 2024, the most mentions of artificial intelligence (AI) in earning calls, and a focus for many incumbent companies building AI into new and current technologies. We also saw a consolidation of significant funding and focus into the leading AI players - ChatGPT by OpenAi, Gemini by Google, and Claude by Anthropic (and Amazon). In 2025, we will see growth in AI tools that are more integrated into your existing tools (see Salesforce’s Agentforce).
4. Data…data…data
Here was my prediction of the continued importance of data, but data that already exists in all your systems. While moving to remote work during COVID was challenging and beneficial, the clear win was that we moved mostly to digital communications and experiences. When we use these digital tools, we leave breadcrumbs with clues for our organizations and people. I love what Humanyze is doing here, and their move down market recently will unlock so much data and insights about culture and people. The key here is data, insights, and how we tell these data stories. Storytelling through data will continue to be a powerful skill into 2025.
5. For The Times They Are A-Changin’ Again
For this prediction, what wasn’t on my bingo or prediction card was Timothée Chalamet’s portrayal of Bob Dylan in 2024. But in 2024, we saw lots of change, whether in global politics, economics, or even at a micro-economic level with companies and organizations. We no longer see change that happens in decades or years; instead, everything we are surrounded by is in constant metamorphosis. Change is the new normal, so buckle up because we will continue to see many changes in 2025.
6. People Metrics - SEC Will Let Them Be
I was wrong here. There is a small but significant update on this effort. FASB approved additional reporting on total employee expense slated for 2027, but no updates on the other requirements. As Professor Lisa LaViers, PhD from Tulane, noted “...the SEC moves really slow.” With a new administration and SEC head likely coming in 2025, I am sure fewer requirements around company disclosures (see Musk’s efforts to build a Texas Stock Exchange) will force these initiatives around human capital disclosures to be placed on hold. Human capital metrics? - that seems too “soft.” We shall see if 2025 will bring on this requirement and be a watershed moment in HR.
7. HR Gets Board
Wrong again! In 2023, the folks sitting on company boards who had CHRO experience declined. The prevalence of new directors with CHRO experience declined by 30.8% from 2.6% to 1.8% in 2023, and we likely see this number remain flat or decline in 2024 (that data is not out yet. What does this mean? It also aligns with the reduction of HR-focused and DEI initiatives and efforts in the past few years. With the rise of AI and the reduction of organizational structures, I expect tension around this prediction if the SEC does approve more human capital metrics disclosure.
8. Remotely Experienced
It has been another interesting year in the UFC match between remote and in-office. At the end of the 2024 match, both are bloody but still standing. We saw Amazon require all their folks to return to the office for all five days (a move that some suspect was a secret layoff tactic), and other folks like Professor Nick Bloom (Stanford), who continues to publish research that shows a hybrid approach is the best impact for the business. Even a recent blog post by Kieran Synder (former CEO/Founder of Textio) looked at data she had about early-stage companies and their growth. She saw in-office as a common element of the companies that grew the most in 2024. This will continue to be a UFC match; a third participant will likely be crowned the victor - hybrid!
9. Wink…Wink…Nudge…Nudge
I was wrong here, too. I predicted we would see more tech in 2024 that nudged folks for learning and development. We are seeing some incredible AI tools like Gong and Kona that record calls (sales and internal), provide fascinating insights, and inform an AI tool to which employees can ask questions and get relevant guidance. However, neither nudge the individual afterward nor in real-time. I continue to believe with AI Agents that this will become increasingly a reality in 2025. So much so that we will need to make sure that not only do these systems nudge us, but nudge us at the best time. AI will play a huge role here.
10. Now Hiring
I got this half right. The unemployment rate has almost remained historically low but increased from 3.9% in April 2024 to 4.2% in November 2024. While this was an increase, according to economists, even at 4.2% is like having no unemployment. I predict that with agents and more AI in 2025, we will see less human capital in every organization and the birth of new organizational structures where companies can grow their top lines quickly but with less human capital - see Meta in 2024. That said, someone has to build relationships and sell this stuff (for now), so I suspect growth in sales and marketing in 2025 and reductions in other areas.
If you are keeping score, I didn’t do a terrible job. I got a few somewhat right, some too early, and others completely wrong.
What do you predict will happen around people and human capital in 2025?
AI in HR Today
with Anthony Onesto
Subscribe for exclusive insights from Anthony Onesto, Chief People Officer at Suzy, and learn how AI is reshaping HR, enhancing employee engagement, and driving business success.